Some China scholars have begun to accuse Beijing of “salami tactics” in seeking to seize gradual control of the South China Sea. The term evokes disturbing echoes of Nazi Germany’s incremental aggression until it was ready for all-out war.
Applying Second World War terminology to China’s current behaviour may seem overblown, but it is apt. In fact, China’s actions also resemble those of another bad actor of that tragic period: Imperial Japan.
The emerging Japan of the 1920s and ’30s, like today’s China, was steeped in historic resentment of the West’s forcible imposition of commercial and cultural influence. Even as Western interaction hugely benefited Japan’s economy then and China’s now, both countries set about building military capabilities commensurate with their new economic prowess.
Naked military power was seen by imperial Japan, as it is by the Communist Party in China, as necessary to defend and expand industrial achievements and economic influence against hostile western nations, most notably the US.
After attacking and annexing Manchuria on the basis of a minor pretext in 1931, Japanese forces extended their invasion into China proper. By the end of the 1930s, Tokyo was ready to look beyond its controlled land area comprising the home islands, Korea, Taiwan and much of China.
On August 1, 1940, Japanese foreign minister Yosuke Matsuoka announced his government’s intention to establish a “Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere” under Japan’s physical and/or political control and free of western influence. It would include the former European colonies of Southeast Asia –— what Tokyo called the Southern Regions — and the Pacific Islands.
The Co-Prosperity Sphere would provide a supply of regional raw materials and energy resources to ensure Japanese self-sufficiency while enabling Japan to control the world’s access to these vital areas and commercial routes.
Mirroring the strategy of Japan’s military government prior to Second World War, the newly established People’s Republic of China first consolidated its territory before venturing into wider maritime regions. In 1950, the same year it supported North Korea’s invasion of South Korea, China invaded and incorporated Tibet and East Turkestan (now Xinjiang). In 1962, it invaded India and seized territory which it still holds. In 1969, it engaged in a series of border conflicts with the Soviet Union that almost erupted into all-out war. In 1979, after Vietnam had invaded Cambodia and overthrown China’s ally, Pol Pot, China invaded northern Vietnam to “teach it a lesson” through a scorched-earth campaign.
Having dramatically increased its military and naval power, China now asserts expansive territorial and maritime claims in the East China Sea and South China Sea, maintains its long-standing claim over the Taiwan Strait, and indulges its ally North Korea’s claim to dominance in the Yellow Sea.
It has made claims in the Indian Ocean and implemented a “string of pearls” strategy of bases and diplomatic ties along the Bay of Bengal. Its submarine base and concentration of strategic naval forces near its South China Sea province of Hainan enable it to interdict shipping at the three crucial chokepoints in the Indian Ocean — Bab Al Mandeb, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Strait of Malacca.
The geographic footprint of China’s claims and expanding reach in East Asia, including its strategic aspirations for the first and second island chains extending to Guam, is almost congruent to Imperial Japan’s planned map for its Co-Prosperity Sphere.
Obviously, no historic analogy is ever entirely apposite, and there are many differences between Imperial Japan in the 1930s and ’40s and China ruled by the Communist Party today. But there are more than enough parallels in strategic ambitions to awaken realistic concerns among western policy makers and those who influence them.
As China tries its hand at a new version of a Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere, the US needs to lead a united international response that discourages further Chinese adventurism.
Washington began such an approach during the last two years of the George W. Bush administration and has accelerated this Asia “pivot” or “rebalancing” under President Barack Obama. The US Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, was in the region last week, building collaboration among America’s friends and allies to settle territorial disputes jointly with China, which prefers bilateral talks — a strategy that gives it the upper hand.
At a press conference in China, Clinton aptly described the US-China relationship as one in which “Our two nations are trying to do something that has never been done in history, which is to write a new answer to the question of what happens when an established power and a rising power meet”.
It’s a question that concerns a great many more countries than these two. Whether the US is led by a President Obama or President Romney, America will have to find the resources and diplomacy to continue its regional collaboration in Asia — ensuring that, this time, the outcome will be something better than war.
Christian Science Monitor
Crucial for ASEAN to take stand on South China Sea disputes: PM Lee
BEIJING - Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong has said it is crucial for ASEAN to weigh in on territorial disputes in the South China Sea with a view of resolving them constructively.
He urged the regional grouping not to stay mum on the code of conduct for the South China Sea.
Speaking to the Singapore media at the end of his official visit to China, Mr Lee also underscored the need for Singapore to make clear its stand on the issue.
Singapore is pushing for ASEAN to start discussion and take a stand on a code of conduct for the South China Sea.
At the end of his week-long tour of China, Mr Lee said issues such as freedom of navigation and the need for stability in the South China Sea affect all ASEAN countries, not just those with competing territorial claims.
Mr Lee said: "Members will have disputes, but ASEAN has to take a stand and can take a neutral stand. It's like when the Thais have a dispute with Cambodia, ASEAN made a statement which didn't take sides with either Thailand or Cambodia. This was over the Preah Vihear temple, but ASEAN did have a view that it should be settled peacefully because otherwise it is going to do harm to ASEAN."
He called the South China Sea issue a "difficult dispute" and said Singapore has to speak constructively and encourage moderation on all sides.
Mr Lee said: "We can't speak for America, we should not speak for America, we should not speak for China. We have to speak from Singapore's perspective. The Chinese understand our position. It's not inimical to the Chinese view and it is not very different in many major elements with what China is trying to achieve, because China does not want to raise a temperature or to have a conflict either."
On Singapore's role in China's development, Mr Lee said the private sector is increasingly taking the lead, while the Singapore government plays a supporting role.
Bilateral relations have also moved from economics to cooperation in other areas such as tourism and traffic management.
Mr Lee said: "It's a big headache for all the Chinese cities, and you can see the traffic jams in Beijing. Where they have to, they don't auction but they have a kind of COE system and they hold a ballot every month and distribute the COEs. And I read just a couple of days ago that Guangzhou is also doing the same - partly balloting, partly auctioning off licence plates which mean COEs.
"So they see Singapore doing it, they adapt, they are looking at us not as the only way, but one example, and they find a solution which is workable and politically acceptable in China, and they move forward. We help them to map out one corner of the possibilities for new policies."
China is also interested in Singapore's social management and in building a harmonious society.
Mr Lee said that that is an area that Singapore is still grappling with especially in getting the young to develop a sense of community purpose and belonging beyond themselves and their families.
Channel News Asia
China’s President Calls for Restraint in South China Sea Dispute
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| Chinese President Hu Jintao (R) meets with his Vietnamese counterpart Truong Tan Sang in Vladivostok, east Russia, on Sept. 7, 2012. (Xinhua/Xie Huanchi) |
Chinese President Hu Jintao told Vietnamese counterpart Truong Tan Sang that both countries should stay calm and act with restraint over territorial disputes in South China Sea.
“There have been some difficulties with China-Vietnam relations because of the dispute of the South Sea,” Hu told Truong at a meeting in Vladivostok, Russia, according to a statement from China’s Foreign Ministry. “This is what we don’t want to see.”
China has become increasingly assertive in claiming sovereignty over islands in the South China Sea, a region rich in oil and gas. Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Taiwan and Brunei also have territorial claims over parts of the area.
China and Vietnam “should avoid any unilateral actions that would expand, complicate and internationalize the dispute,” Hu was cited as saying in Vladivostok, where he and Truong are attending the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit. He said they should “adhere to bilateral negotiations and friendly consultations.”
China’s foreign ministry said Truong told Hu that Vietnam is willing to work with China to solve the dispute as early as possible through peaceful and friendly negotiations.
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