Panetta Goes to China as Territorial Disputes Simmer

PENTAGON — U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta will be in China next week, on a visit aimed at easing mutual suspicions that have risen during territorial disputes in the South China Sea and China's rapid military development.

Panetta visited with U.S. allies in Asia last June to strengthen partnerships as the Obama administration turns the military's focus to the Pacific following drawdowns in Iraq and Afghanistan.

China is embroiled in territorial disputes over the South China Sea with a number of neighboring countries, and has called for the United States not to get involved. 

During a visit to Beijing this month, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said Washington's stance is clear.   

"The United States does not take a position on competing territorial claims," said Clinton.  "Our interest is in the maintenance of peace and stability, respect for international law, freedom of navigation, and unimpeded lawful commerce."

But the United States has expressed concern about rising tensions in the South China Sea and about China's establishment of a military garrison in Hainan province, an action that has drawn protests from neighboring Vietnam.

This visit is a chance for Panetta to allay the concerns of Beijing, which accuses Washington of working to contain China's influence in the Asia-Pacific region.

In Singapore last June, the defense secretary rejected that view.

"Our effort to renew and intensify our involvement in Asia is fully compatible with the development and growth of China," Panetta said.

Defense analyst Andrew Krepinevich, at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments in Washington, says China's rapid development of its military arsenal raises concerns about possible Chinese expansionism. 

"China was not under threat of aggression," said Krepinevich.  "The U.S. had military dominance in the region after the Cold War and there was no attempt to contain China or threaten China.  And so there is a lot of, I guess, concern over the fact that this military buildup does not seem to have been provoked.  So if that is the case, then what is the objective here?"

China has been developing its long-range missile technology, something U.S. analysts say presents a potential threat to American bases in Guam and Okinawa.  The new U.S. defense strategy includes shifting a majority of U.S. naval assets from the Atlantic to the Pacific in the next few years.

VOA

Will Asia Pacific be torn between the two tigers?

As reported by the Associated Press, during the APEC summit in Vladivostok, the US Secretary of State welcomed Russia's more active Russian role in the Asia-Pacific. Citing an unnamed senior US official traveling with Ms. Clinton, the agency states that the State Secretary is eager to hear what Russian President Vladimir Putin's "goals and ambitions" in the region are and how they might complement US efforts.

The report might seem trivial at first sight – in fact, a "more active role" in the Asia Pacific is one of the core aims of today's Russian foreign policy. But it should be looked upon in a much broader context – that is within the framework of the US strategic shift to the region overtly announced about a year ago.

Dotted red line shows vast area claimed by China. The PHL, which is claiming some islands, has begun calling the region the West Philippine Sea. GMA News

Indeed, the Asia Pacific, and especially the South China Sea, is becoming a center stage for all global politics. While in other areas the dominant confrontation defining the balance of powers in the world might seem subdued and, to a certain extent, peripheral, the Asia Pacific region demonstrates it unequivocally. This is an area where the US and its allies are balancing on the brink of an open confrontation with China and are actively building muscles and trying to forge as strong an alliance as possible with countries of the region with the sole purpose of containing China.

Sometimes, though, cracks appear within what the US would like to see as an unmarried alliance. Territorial disputes do not happen between "China and all others" (although most cases fall within the formula), but between US staunchest allies in the region – like Japan – South Korea row over Dokdo Islands as they are called in Korean, or Takeshima in Japanese.

It should be noted that the US is not a littoral country iwithn regard to any of the seas where the territorial disputes take place. Still, it is obviously striving to establish its strategic presence there clearly fearing that otherwise the frontline of its standoff with China will shift much farther eastward, up to its own Pacific coast.

Well, now what lies behind Ms. Clinton's call for Russia to take a more proactive role in the regional affairs and even to "complement" the US efforts?

One of the reasons may be the fact that in shifting its attention to the Asia Pacific, the US has tried to consume a much bigger lump than it can swallow and digest.

Another lies in the fact that Washington is definitely unhappy with the state of Russian – Chinese affairs, which despite the strains in the not so distant history, have reached a level of full-scale strategic partnership.

Clearly, by urging Russia to take more active role in the affairs of the region, the US Secretary of State implies that the regional issues should be raised from the bilateral level between the countries involved to a multilateral level, and that, in turn means weakening China's stance and increasing the role of the US, with all others playing a subordinate and secondary role.

This kind of US strategy has borne certain fruit in the recent past. It has managed not only to renovate its strategic cooperation with old-time allies like Singapore, Australia or the Philippines by increasing its military presence in respective countries, but also to bring into the orbit of its policies in the region countries like Vietnam which, not really having too warm of an attitude towards the US, at present face no other option as to rely on it in order to get rid of China's dominance.

And this brings us to the most crucial question – are the countries of the region doomed to side with one of the two major players, or is there a third alternative?

Obviously, some of the problems of Russia's participation in the Asia Pacific affairs are rooted in the failures of Russia's foreign policy of the 1990s, which, among other things, resulted in a certain cooling of relations with its traditional allies in Asia, including primarily Vietnam, India and Mongolia.

But the present framework of the global US – Chinese standoff opens a possibility of a "third way" in global politics, including (and probably, primarily) in the Asia Pacific.

So, one answer that Ms. Clinton must have gotten from her appeal to Russia is the following. Russia WILL play an increasingly more active role, but it remains highly doubtful that this role will "complement" the US efforts. Rather, it is going to be a truly independent policy that would enable Russia as well as other countries not willing to be torn between the two tigers to find a real alternative.

Boris Volkhonsky

Putin: Asia can count on Russia for energy supply

VLADIVOSTOK, Russia - President Vladimir Putin promised Asia and Pacific leaders meeting in the seaport of Vladivostok on Friday that they could count on Russia to be a reliable energy supplier and provide a bridge to Europe that can help revitalize regional trade.

Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks during a plenary session at the APEC summit in Vladivostok, Russia, Friday, Sept. 7, 2012. (AP Photo/Mikhail Metzel)

Russia is boosting its exports of oil and gas to Asia after years of focusing almost entirely on supplying Europe. Moscow also has ambitious plans to develop its railroads, roads, seaports and airports in the east of the country with the aim of providing a reliable transportation link between Asia and Europe.

"The first and main thing we're going to do is develop transport infrastructure," Putin told regional business leaders.

He played up Russia's common economic space with neighbors Kazakhstan and Belarus as opening "a direct route to Europe for business in the Pacific region."

Faltering vital signs in China and elsewhere make pushing ahead with more and freer trade an urgent priority for the 21-member Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, whose leaders are gathered in the Russian Far East port of Vladivostok for their annual summit.

APEC aims to foster growth by dismantling barriers and bottlenecks that slow trade and business, while nurturing closer economic ties.

Given its status as an organization governed by consensus, APEC is not known for major policy breakthroughs. Election-year politics and territorial spats make this year particularly challenging.

From the Kuril islands to the northeast of Vladivostok all the way to the Spratlys in the South China Sea, various neighbors are squabbling over territories at a time when they most need to be focused on promoting growth.

South Korea is feuding with Japan, Japan with China and Russia, China with many of its Southeast Asian neighbors. With elections due soon in South Korea and Japan, and a once-in-a-decade change in the Communist Party leadership pending in China, lame-duck leaders facing nationalist pressures at home have little room for amicably resolving the disputes.

"It's bad luck that it happens just before all these transitions. Everybody is looking around and saying, `these people won't be at the table in three months,'" said William Overholt, an Asia expert at Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government.

The sharp decline in growth in trade this year - from 12 percent in December to 4.6 percent in May - underscores the importance of pushing ahead with trade initiatives, the APEC Policy Support Unit, an independent data analysis and research unit, said in a report issued Friday.

As hosts, Russian leaders are showcasing their country's recent entry into the rules-setting World Trade Organization - a key step in traditionally Europe-centric Moscow's effort to build trade and investment ties with its neighbors in the Far East.

"What I'd expect from the meeting is Russia trying to show itself to be a global power, and certainly my view and that of many others is that is not true anymore," said Xenia Dormandy, an expert at the London-based think-tank Chatham House.

President Barack Obama's decision to skip this year's gathering - Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is attending in his place - allows Russia greater leeway to shape its agenda, said Peter Drysdale, a professor emeritus at Australia National University who helped set up APEC in 1989.

"After a long time sitting on the sidelines, the Russians have thrown considerable diplomatic firepower into working up a strong APEC agenda," Drysdale said in a commentary on the website East Asia Forum.

Since last year's summit in Honolulu, Canada and Mexico have gotten the go-ahead to join nine other nations involved in talks on forming a U.S.-backed free trade bloc known as the "Trans-Pacific Partnership." But participants have yet to reach their goal of setting a legal framework this year for the initiative, and Japan, its leaders preoccupied with tax reforms and domestic politics, has so far been unable to join the negotiations.

Such difficulties are inevitable given the high standards set out for the arrangement, said New Zealand's prime minister, John Key.

"All governments involved will have to take some tough decisions if we are to get there. But I am convinced that the high quality TPP is not only achievable but critical for growth in the region," Key told a conference on the sidelines of the APEC summit.

China, which some economists say is on course to overtake the U.S. as the world's biggest economy this decade, appears wary of backing a U.S.-led initiative, and it has commitments to rival free trade blocs in East and Southeast Asia.

TPP talks resumed Thursday near Washington, and officials attending APEC were discussing it in their own meetings. But without China or Japan, the world's No. 3 economy, the initiative would have little traction.

Meeting the rigorous standards for open and free trade, and for protection of trademarks and patents, for example, also would be arduous for former centrally-planned economies such as China and Russia.

But Andrei Belousov, Russia's economy minister, said his country was keen to join.

Meanwhile, keen to leaven its European-dominated trade and balance its growing reliance on dealing with China, Russia is also pursuing a customs union that is meant to evolve into a "Eurasian Economic Union" that would stretch from the Atlantic to the Pacific Ocean.

With Europe still mired in its debt crisis, Asia remains the biggest driver of global growth, despite a decline in powerhouse China's economic growth to a three-year low of 7.6 percent in the second quarter - and signs Japan's own export-led recovery is sputtering.

In its latest forecast, the Manila-based Asian Development Bank predicted the region's economies will expand by 6.6 percent this year.

"Russia is looking to Asia. It's not growing as fast as it was two years ago but it's still the bright spot in the global economy," said Tony Nash, managing director at IHS Global Insight in Singapore. "It's still where the action is."

ELAINE KURTENBACH

Clinton Plays Up 'Frank' Talks With Beijing

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton put a positive spin on meetings with Chinese leaders earlier this week that yielded little visible progress on diplomatic disputes, saying the relationship between the two superpowers is mature enough to withstand differences.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton with the sultan of Brunei on Thursday.

Nearing the final leg of her 11-day Asia-Pacific tour with Thursday stops in East Timor and Brunei, Mrs. Clinton also sought to dial back speculation that she was visiting the smaller nations in an effort to counter Chinese influence in the region.

"We are not here against any other country," she said. "We happen to believe that Asia and the Pacific are quite big enough for many countries to participate in the activities of the region."

Her stops, which included a tour of a coffee plantation in Connecticut-sized East Timor, followed her visit to Beijing, where she and Chinese leaders appeared far apart on key issues such as how to end Syria's civil war and resolve territorial disputes in the resource-rich South China Sea. Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi dismissed the idea that there was a serious problem in the South China Sea, saying the historical record supported its claims there, and said solutions to the Syrian crisis shouldn't be imposed by outside countries.

Mrs. Clinton was also greeted skeptically by Chinese state media, which questioned whether U.S. officials were trying to drive a wedge between Beijing and other countries across the region.

"As was evident yesterday, there is a huge amount going on where the United States and China need to consult," Mrs. Clinton said, also mentioning issues including Iran, North Korea and the global economic recovery. "Even when we disagree, believe me, we can talk very frankly now. We can explore the toughest issues without imperiling the whole relationship," she said.

"The United States, certainly I, am not going to shy away from standing up for our strategic interests, and in expressing clearly where we differ," she added.Mr. Yang called the talks "constructive and fruitful," state media said.

Analysts widely believe Mrs. Clinton's trip is partly intended to rally leaders in other Asian nations to forge a common position on issues such as how to settle disputes in the South China Sea, which is claimed in whole by China and in part by Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and others. The U.S. says it doesn't take sides in territorial disputes, but says it has an interest in maintaining freedom of navigation in the sea, which is home to some of the world's most critical shipping lanes.

Mrs. Clinton's trip comes two months ahead of a major regional summit in Phnom Penh in November where U.S. leaders are expected to continue pressing for a code of conduct to govern conflicts in the sea. China has opposed efforts to settle disagreements at multilateral forums and says it prefers to handle them on a bilateral basis.

Her stop in Brunei, meanwhile, took her to a tiny petrostate of only about 400,000 people that nevertheless will carry more weight next year when it is slated to host a series of major meetings of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, an increasingly important regional bloc which U.S. officials hope can serve as a check on growing Chinese diplomatic sway. Brunei also has claims in the South China Sea, as well as experience in hammering out joint-development agreements for oil and gas in contested waters, which could be applied to disputes in the sea.

A senior U.S. State Department official traveling with Mrs. Clinton from East Timor to Brunei acknowledged it was likely tensions would remain high for the foreseeable future. "I do think we have to be prepared for more tension on some of these matters," the official said. "I think this is the new normal."

But U.S. officials played down the strategic imperative of visiting East Timor, instead arguing Mrs. Clinton's stop there was intended mainly to recognize the country's significant progress since it gained independence from Indonesia a decade ago, capped with a democratic election this year. Even so, U.S. officials have supported the idea of admitting East Timor into the 10-member Asean bloc, which could enhance its strategic significance.

Mrs. Clinton heads next to Vladivostok, Russia, where she will attend an Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit this weekend.

Patrick Barta

No Movement on Major Disputes as Clinton Meets With Chinese Leaders

BEIJING — The United States and China clashed openly on Wednesday over two of the most contentious issues riling their relationship, the violence in Syria and growing tensions over territorial disputes in the South China Sea.

After hours of meetings with other top leaders that began Tuesday night and continued Wednesday, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton failed to narrow the gaps over international crises involving Iran and North Korea and the competition for dominance in the Asia-Pacific region. China also rebuffed Mrs. Clinton’s appeals to soften its support for the government of President Bashar al-Assad of Syria. Adding to the bumps on what is likely to be Mrs. Clinton’s last visit to China as secretary of state, one of her most important appointments, a session with Vice President Xi Jinping, the likely next leader of China, was canceled.

Most important, the Chinese leadership showed no signs of buckling after months of efforts by Mrs. Clinton and her senior aides to persuade the country to be more flexible on maritime disputes in the South China Sea.

“China has sovereignty over the islands of the South China Sea and the adjacent waters,” the foreign minister, Yang Jiechi, declared flatly during a lengthy appearance with Mrs. Clinton in the Great Hall of the People on Tiananmen Square. “There is plentiful historical and jurisprudential evidence for that.”

When asked about the deepening of American military engagement in Australia and the Philippines, Mr. Yang pointedly added that the United States should reconsider its own strategy in Asia in light of “the trends of our current era and the general wish of countries in the region.”

Mrs. Clinton and her senior aides did not come to Beijing with high expectations of resolving major differences, given China’s once-in-a-decade leadership transition beginning this fall. The highly scripted transition has been jolted by a political scandal that led to the downfall of a major party official, Bo Xilai, that revealed some of the maneuvering among the political elite. As Mrs. Clinton was wrapping up her trip, a central figure in the scandal, Wang Lijun, wascharged with “bending the law for selfish ends, defection, abuse of power and bribetaking,” according to the official Xinhua news agency.

American officials said that Mrs. Clinton was not told of the looming charges against Mr. Wang during her talks on Tuesday and Wednesday, but, they said, the United States had expected that Mr. Wang would be charged at some point amid the churning internal maneuvering ahead of the transition.

At the news conference with Mr. Yang, there was little effort to paper over the two countries’ differences on Syria and the territorial disputes in the South China Sea. In July, China established a military garrison and a legislative assembly on the tiny Paracel Islands, which Vietnam also claims, exacerbating the tensions there.

Mrs. Clinton, who is in the middle of a 10-day trip through Asia, has repeatedly called on China to discuss with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations a code of conduct to address disputes in the region. The Chinese have firmly resisted that idea, with Mr. Yang insisting on direct negotiations with individual countries.

The State Department has said that China would be more likely to get its way by bargaining with individual nations than with the entire regional bloc.

In the last few months, for example, China has effectively blocked the Philippines, an ally of the United States, from gaining access to the Scarborough Shoal, known as Huangyan Island by China. The Chinese placed a rope across the entrance to the island lagoon and have kept patrol boats in the adjacent waters.

After days of hostile articles in the official Chinese news media about American interference in the region, Mr. Yang said any settlement over the South China Sea disputes should only involve those “directly concerned,” in other words, not the United States.

The foreign minister repeated China’s oft-stated policy that China would assure “the freedom and safety of navigation in the South China Sea.”

On the conflict in Syria, Mrs. Clinton reiterated American criticism of China’s veto, with Russia, of three United Nations Security Council resolutions intended to press Mr. Assad to end the violent crackdown in his country, which has claimed an estimated 20,000 lives and created a rising flood of more than 240,000 refugees, 100,000 in the last month.

“We believe that the situation in Syria is a threat to peace and stability in the entire region,” Mrs. Clinton said. “And the longer the conflict goes on, the greater the risk that it spills over borders and destabilizes neighboring countries.”

The foreign minister, Mr. Yang, countered that China opposed international interference in any other country’s internal affairs, though he expressed support for the peace proposal of the former United Nations envoy, Kofi Annan, which American and most other diplomats consider to be moot at this point. He suggested that China’s policy, not the United States’, would ultimately prove successful. “I think history will judge that China’s position on the Syrian question is a promotion of the appropriate handling and resolution” of the violence there, he said.

The Foreign Ministry said at its regular briefing that the cancellation of Mrs. Clinton’s meeting with Mr. Xi was a “normal adjustment of the itinerary.” Mr. Xi also canceled his scheduled meeting Wednesday with Singapore’s prime minister, Lee Hsien Loong. “We have reached consensus with the United States and Singapore” on the cancellations, the Foreign Ministry spokesman, Hong Lei, said.

Diplomats in Beijing said they were told that Mr. Xi had hurt his back and said there was no reason not to believe that explanation, even though there was speculation about whether the cancellation of the meeting with Mrs. Clinton was connected to the once-in-a-decade transition, or whether it was intended as a snub.

Instead of Mr. Xi, Mrs. Clinton met with the vice premier, Li Keqiang, who is expected to become the premier early next year. Earlier Wednesday, she met with President Hu Jintao, whose term ends next year, at the Great Hall of the People. Despite the differences, Mrs. Clinton and her aides appeared satisfied with the Obama administration’s efforts to build greater openness between the two countries by creating regular consultations that allow them to endure disagreements like those on display here. She noted that President Obama and Mr. Hu have met 12 times, while she has visited Beijing five times, joking at one point that she had lost count.

N.Y. Times

South China Sea Dispute: Clinton Visit Brings U.S. Neutrality Doubts

BEIJING — U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton sat down Wednesday with Chinese President Hu Jintao to press Beijing to agree to peacefully resolve territorial disputes with its smaller neighbors over the South China Sea. But as she began her meetings here, China questioned the stated neutrality of the United States.

At the start of the talks with Hu, Clinton said the U.S.-China relationship is strong. "We are able to explore areas of agreement and disagreement in a very open manner, which I think demonstrates the maturity of the relationship and the chance to take it further in the future," she said.

There was no immediate comment on the talks, but a scheduled meeting with Vice President Xi Jinping for later Wednesday morning had been canceled by China "for unexpected scheduling reasons," said a senior State Department official, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Xi, who takes over as China's top leader later this year, also had a meeting canceled with the visiting prime minister of Singapore, Lee Hsien Loong. No reasons for the cancellations have been given.

Clinton met late Tuesday with Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi after arriving in China from Indonesia, where she urged Southeast Asian nations to present a unified front in dealing with China in attempts to ease rising tensions in the South China Sea.

The U.S. wants China and the other claimants to adopt a binding code of conduct for the region, along with a process to resolve maritime disputes without coercion, intimidation or the use of force. Clinton wants the Chinese to drop their insistence on settling conflicting claims with individual nations and instead embrace a multilateral mechanism that will give the smaller members of the Association of South East Asian Nations greater clout in negotiations.

She urged all parties to make "meaningful progress" by a November summit of East Asian leaders that President Barack Obama plans to attend in Cambodia.

In Jakarta, Indonesia's capital, Clinton offered strong U.S. support for a regionally endorsed plan to ease rising tensions by implementing the code of conduct. Jakarta is the headquarters of ASEAN, and Clinton pressed the group to insist that China agree to deal with them as a bloc.

The stance puts the U.S. squarely at odds with China, which has become more aggressive in pressing its territorial claims with its smaller neighbors and wants the disputes to be resolved with each country, giving it greater leverage.

Clinton made her case in Jakarta on Tuesday in meetings with Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and ASEAN secretary general Surin Pitsuwan. Indonesia has played a leading role in putting the six-point plan together after ASEAN was unable to reach consensus on the matter in July.

Clinton said the U.S. is "encouraged" by the plan but wants it acted on – particularly implementation and enforcement of the code of conduct, which has languished since a preliminary framework for it was first agreed upon in 2002.

"The United States does not take a position on competing territorial claims ... but we believe the nations of the region should work collaboratively to resolve disputes without coercion, without intimidation and certainly without the use of force," Clinton told reporters at a news conference with Indonesian Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa.

Yet China on Tuesday expressed skepticism that the U.S. is neutral in the disputes.

"The U.S. has many times said it does not take a position," Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Hong Lei said Tuesday. "I hope they will keep their promise and do more to help stability and not the opposite. The South China Sea dispute is a complicated thing. To China, the South China Sea dispute is about the sovereignty of some of the islands there. China, like other countries in the world, has the obligation to safeguard its territories."

For the second day in a row Clinton was criticized Wednesday in editorials in Chinese newspapers. The Global Times said the United States was behind the disputes in the South China Sea and accused Clinton of seeking "unilateral compromise by China."

It said "China should not let the U.S. have any doubt or other misjudgments regarding its determination."

China and a host of Southeast Asian countries, including the Philippines, Vietnam and Brunei, have overlapping claims to several small, but potentially energy-rich areas of the South China Sea.

In July, China angered the United States, as well as Vietnam and the Philippines, by creating a city and military garrison on a remote island 220 miles (350 kilometers) from its southernmost province intended to administer hundreds of thousands of square miles of water where China wants to strengthen its control over disputed islands. China, which also has disputes with Japan in the East China Sea, rejected the criticism.

In addition to the South China Sea, Clinton will be discussing the situation in Syria as well as the efforts to deal with Iran and North Korea's nuclear programs while she is in the Chinese capital.

Clinton is in China at the midpoint of an 11-day, six-nation tour of the Asia-Pacific region that started in the Cook Islands and Indonesia. After she leaves China, she will visit East Timor and Brunei before heading to Russia's Far East to represent the United States at the annual meeting of leaders from the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Vladivostock.

Huffington Post

China questions U.S. neutrality over its territorial claims

Beijing expresses doubts as U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton arrives on regional tour to persuade authorities to resolve disputes over competing claims in South China Sea.

Clinton is pressing China to agree to peacefully resolve territorial disputes with their smaller neighbors (Feng Li, Associated Press)

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton is in Beijing to press Chinese authorities to agree to peacefully resolve disputes with their smaller neighbours over competing territorial claims in the South China Sea. But as she began her meetings, China questioned the stated neutrality of the United States.

Clinton met late Tuesday with Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi after arriving in China from Indonesia, where she urged Southeast Asian nations to present a unified front in dealing with China in attempts to ease rising tensions in the South China Sea. Clinton will meet on Wednesday with other top Chinese officials, including President Hu Jintao and State Councillor Dai Bingguo.

The U.S. wants China and the other claimants to adopt a binding code of conduct for the region, along with a process to resolve maritime disputes without coercion, intimidation or the use of force. Clinton wants the Chinese to drop their insistence on settling conflicting claims with individual nations and instead embrace a multilateral mechanism that will give the smaller members of the Association of South East Asian Nations greater clout in negotiations.

She urged all parties to make "meaningful progress" by a November summit of East Asian leaders that President Barack Obama plans to attend in Cambodia.

Dispute over South China Sea
In Indonesia's capital before heading to China, Clinton offered strong U.S. support for a regionally endorsed plan to ease rising tensions by implementing the code of conduct. Jakarta is the headquarters of ASEAN, and Clinton pressed the group to insist that China agree to deal with them as a bloc.

The stance puts the U.S. squarely at odds with China, which has become more aggressive in pressing its territorial claims with its smaller neighbours and wants the disputes to be resolved with each country, giving it greater leverage.

Clinton made her case in Jakarta on Tuesday in meetings with Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and ASEAN secretary general Surin Pitsuwan, a day after she delivered the same message to Indonesian Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa. Indonesia has played a leading role in putting the six-point plan together after ASEAN was unable to reach consensus on the matter in July.

Clinton said the U.S. is "encouraged" by the plan but wants it acted on — particularly implementation and enforcement of the code of conduct, which has languished since a preliminary framework for it was first agreed upon in 2002. .

"The United States has a national interest, as every country does, in the maintenance of peace and stability, respect for international law, freedom of navigation, unimpeded lawful commerce in the South China Sea," Clinton told reporters at a news conference with Natalegawa.

Chinese boats sail in the lagoon of Meiji reef off the island of Hainan, which is also claimed by Vietnam (Associated Press

"The United States does not take a position on competing territorial claims ... but we believe the nations of the region should work collaboratively to resolve disputes without coercion, without intimidation and certainly without the use of force," she said. "That is why we encourage ASEAN and China to make meaningful progress toward finalizing a comprehensive code of conduct in order to establish rules of the road and clear procedures for peacefully addressing disagreements."

Yet China on Tuesday expressed skepticism that the U.S. is neutral in the disputes.

"The U.S. has many times said it does not take a position," Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Hong Lei said on Tuesday. "I hope they will keep their promise and do more to help stability and not the opposite. The South China Sea dispute is a complicated thing. To China, the South China Sea dispute is about the sovereignty of some of the islands there. China, like other countries in the world, has the obligation to safeguard its territories."

China and a host of Southeast Asian countries, including the Philippines, Vietnam and Brunei, have overlapping claims to several small, but potentially energy-rich areas of the South China Sea.

In July, China angered the United States, as well as Vietnam and the Philippines, by creating a city and military garrison on a remote island 220 miles from its southernmost province intended to administer hundreds of thousands of square miles of water where China wants to strengthen its control over disputed islands. China, which also has disputes with Japan in the East China Sea, rejected the criticism.

Associated Press

India and America’s Growing Partnership

Although differences remain, an increasingly powerful and assertive China is pushing New Delhi and Washington closer together.

The possibility of a looming new cold war was on most attendees’ minds at the recent Asia-Pacific Roundtable on Asian Security Governance and Order in Kuala Lumpur. 

Hanging over the meeting was the reality of an increasingly influential and assertive China, and the anxiety this has created in the United States.

What was striking, however, was that, at least among some of the regional states in attendance, the perception is that China’s growing power in the region is wholly benign. 

Malaysian Prime Minister Razak, for instance, said that he would not belittle “the positive transformational effects China’s ascendancy has and will continue to have on Asia and beyond.” Mahathir Mohammed, the elder statesman of Malaysia, went even further by suggesting that because China has never colonized Asian countries in the way Europe once did, Malaysia might have more reason to fear modern Europe than modern China.

China’s own perceptions about security in Asia and the Pacific called this logic into question. The Chinese Ambassador to ASEAN spelled out the Chinese position on the South China Sea, making light of the repercussions of Chinese assertiveness on this matter. Other Chinese scholars openly admitted that confrontation with the U.S. was inevitable, as the U.S. rebalance towards Asia was aimed squarely at China and posed a direct threat to it, even well admitting that the two countries shared an interest in proceeding with cautious pragmatism. This is likely to generate greater cooperation between the two.

By China’s own admission, moreover, its impressive rise in the region was forcing weaker countries to perform the feat of “putting legs on two boats.” Many ASEAN nations seemed to more or less agree with this assessment. For example, the Indonesian Foreign Minister said that each country in the region is “worried” about having to choose between two competing sides. “We do not want to be put into that position,” FM Marty Natalegawa said. 

“The Pacific is sufficiently accommodating to provide not only the role of China and the U.S., but of emerging powers too.” An ASEAN spokesperson later added that ASEAN would not like to dictate the roles of different powers in the region. Instead, it would rather act like a flight controller at a busy airport, making sure that all planes arrive and depart without collision.

But sooner or later, countries in the region will have to develop a cohesive Asian strategy to deal with the challenge of Chinese assertiveness. In contrast to many of the ASEAN powers, India and the U.S. seem to understand this reality. This is pushing them towards greater cooperation.

The U.S., for example, has decided to reorient its foreign policy to give greater attention to the arc extending from the Western Pacific and East Asia into the Indian Ocean region and South Asia. President Obama was candid about Washington’s’ strategic objectives in the region when he stated, “I am determined that we meet the challenges of the moment responsibly and that we emerge even stronger in a manner that preserves American global leadership and maintains our military superiority.” The real debate in America today is not about the importance of Asia, but rather over what the best methods are for the U.S. to engage the region.  

India too understands what’s at stake. To be sure, like the U.S., India has an interest in working with the U.S., China, and other countries in revamping the regional security system in a way that is compatible with India’s own interests. Furthermore, India has tried to smooth over tensions with China by identifying the issues- particularly multilateral ones like international trade, the global financial system, and the environment, in which cooperation with China can be enhanced.

Nonetheless, New Delhi is under no illusions about the potential challenges a rising China creates. At least two of these stretch back decades, and yet, because of their intractable nature, continue to animate Sino-Indian relations. These include: the unsettled border between the two countries and Beijing’s continued support of Pakistan. In addition, China’s military modernization, focusing as it does on the PLA Navy, has also raised the possibility of Beijing coming to dominate the sea-lanes of the Indian and Pacific Oceans. This would simply be unacceptable for India.

India-U.S. relations have undoubtedly benefitted from the changing dynamics of the Asia-Pacific. Indeed, both sides were all smiles when External Affairs Minister S.M. Krishna and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton met in June for the third round of their bilateral strategic dialogue. That is not to say that the issuesthat have bedeviled the bilateral relationship over the last two years had disappeared. They hadn’t. Nonetheless, they had been sidelined in favor of focusing on the larger, long-term objectives in which U.S. and Indian interests happily coincide.

The impetus for focusing on these larger issues, of course, was the growing tensions between China and some of the ASEAN nations over the South China Sea, which coincided with the strategic dialogue. Even as the disputes in the South China Sea have continued throughout the summer, new tensions have emerged between China, South Korea, and Japan over maritime sovereignty issues in the East China Sea.

As these developments have unfolded the U.S. has largely cast aside its initial doubts about India and begun to embrace it as the “lynchpin” of its new security architecture. This was made evident by Secretary Leon Panetta during his trip to India immediately prior to the strategic dialogue, when he sought to enlist India as a partner in Asia-Pacific, whatever may have been the irritants in the past.

The elaborate Joint Statement issued at the end of the strategic dialogue makes the context very clear. “The U.S. and India have a shared vision of peace, stability, and prosperity in Asia, the Indian Ocean region, and the Pacific region and are committed to work together, and with others in the region, for the evolution of an open, balanced and inclusive architecture.”  It’s rare for Indo-U.S. statements to express the unified role of the two countries in the region in such stark terms.

Nor were these just empty words. Indeed, real changes are already being seen. For instance, the U.S., once wary of upsetting Pakistan by encouraging India to take an active role in Afghanistan, now seeks out new opportunities to intensify the efforts of the two countries for consultation, coordination, and cooperation in promoting a stable, democratic, sovereign and prosperous Afghanistan. This has gone so far as Washington putting aside its decades-long opposition to regional projects that involve the Islamic Republic of Iran. For example, even as U.S.-Iranian relations deteriorate, Washington has suggested it would support a proposal for India and Afghanistan to help develop Iran’s Chabahar Port in order to facilitate greater trade among these three countries.

The references to defense relations in the joint statement are of particular importance. Instead of continuing dwell on India’s fighter aircraft contract not going to a U.S. company, the statement celebrated the fact that India had awarded defense contracts worth $9 billion USD in recent years to U.S. companies. It noted the many joint military exercises and exchanges that have been held over the last six years, and reaffirmed both sides desire to strengthen defense cooperation through increased technology transfers. 

None of this is to say that an intense strategic rivalry between India and the U.S. on the one hand, and China on the other is inevitable. Indeed, New Delhi is likely to continue seeking ways to ameliorate tensions with China by cooperating on issues where both countries’ have similar interests.

Some also hope that India and China will find ways to dampen their running disputes. Kishore Mahbubani of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, Singapore, together with an Indian and a Chinese scholar, has suggested an India-China diplomatic structure to monitor these issues and to find temporary, if not permanent solutions.

Nonetheless, given China’s present assertiveness, these solutions are likely to prove unworkable. As they do, India will have to search for ways to provide for its own security in the larger context of the evolving regional environment, rather than bilaterally with China. In this sense, greater U.S. involvement may be an important factor.

Ambassador T.P.Sreenivasan is the Vice-Chairman and Executive Head of the Kerala State Higher Education Council with the rank of Vice-Chancellor. In his 37-year career with the Indian Foreign Service, he served in many distinguished positions including Permanent Representative of India to the United Nations, Vienna, Governor for India at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Vienna, and Ambassador to Austria and Slovenia (2000-2004), among many other positions.

Statement of the Kashag on the Fifty-Second Anniversary of Tibetan Democracy Day

2 September 2012

On the 52nd anniversary of Tibetan Democracy Day, I would like to pay the Kashag’s and my personal obeisance to His Holiness the Dalai Lama and extend heartfelt greetings to fellow Tibetans in Tibet and in exile.

Today is a proud day for all Tibetans. It is the day when Tibetan exiles have fully realized His Holiness the Dalai Lama’s cherished wish to transform the Tibetan polity into a vibrant democracy.

Since the age of 16, His Holiness the Dalai Lama has taken steps to introduce and consolidate Tibetan democracy. This precious gift of democracy will be treasured by all Tibetans in the same way we have treasured and embraced Buddhism for over 1300 years. As Buddhism offers liberation from suffering, democracy will provide the Tibetan people the means to attain freedom from injustice.

We can take pride in the fact that Tibetans in exile have proven that Buddhism is compatible with democracy. It is also established that all the major religious traditions, from Hinduism to Judaism, from Christianity to Shintoism are compatible with democracy. The Arab Spring has shown that Islam and democracy are not in conflict. The question arises whether Confucianism too can embrace democracy. Vibrant democracies of Taiwan and South Korea for instance prove that Confucianism and democracy are also compatible. Democracy therefore is neither cultural specific nor developmental specific but universal.

In 1950, at the tender age of 16, His Holiness the Dalai Lama was compelled to assume leadership of the Tibetan people at a critical period in Tibet’s history. Four years later, in 1954, His Holiness the Dalai Lama constituted a Reform Committee, which held as one of its objectives the exemption of poor farmers and indigent Tibetans from heavy taxation. In 1954, His Holiness the Dalai Lama visited China, and two years later, in 1956, he visited India. Comparing the two governments, he was far more impressed with the robust discourse in the Indian parliament than the Chinese political system under communism.

Soon after coming into exile in 1959, His Holiness the Dalai Lama called for Tibetan parliamentary elections. It was on this day in September 1960, that the first Tibetan Parliament was inaugurated. As early as 1963, our leaders adopted the first democratic constitution of Tibet, which even included a provision allowing for the impeachment of His Holiness the Dalai Lama. Women’s representation was included as early as 1963, and representation of the Bon religious tradition in 1977.

In 1991, the Charter of the Tibetans in Exile was adopted and the Parliament expanded and constitutionally empowered to elect the Kashag. The Tibetan Supreme Justice Commission, formed in 1992, completed the creation of three separate pillars of democracy. In 2001, when the first-ever direct election of the Kalon Tripa took place, His Holiness the Dalai Lama declared himself as semi-retired. Then in March of last year, despite persistent appeal by Tibetans from around the world, His Holiness the Dalai Lama devolved all his political authority to the elected leader, declaring the fulfillment of his “long-cherished goal” of bringing democracy to the Tibetan people.

Despite resistance at every stage in the democratization of the Tibetan polity, His Holiness the Dalai Lama persisted in guiding his people to full democracy. From this it is clear that His Holiness the Dalai Lama has single-handedly built Tibetan democracy. Now recognized and applauded by leaders around the world, His Holiness the Dalai Lama’s 60 years of total dedication, sincere motivation and visionary leadership has established him as the true democrat in the Tibetan world. The preciousness of His Holiness the Dalai Lama’s contribution towards reform and democracy will be fully appreciated by generations of Tibetans to come. In appreciation of these efforts, the Tibetan people will offer a long- life prayer to His Holiness the Dalai Lama at the conclusion of the Second Special General Meeting of Tibetans in September.

Leaders around the world recognize the accomplishment of the Tibetan exiles as we institute a fully representative form of governance. In my travels as Kalon Tripa, I have had the privilege of meeting with Nobel laureates, former presidents and prime ministers, speakers of the U.S. Congress and the Australian Parliament, and other leaders of more than a dozen countries. In the international media, as well as Indian and overseas Chinese media, the 2011 Tibetan election was recognized as genuine, credible, and reflective of the universality of democracy.

The recognition given by both global leaders and the media has enhanced the legitimacy of the elected leader of the Central Tibetan Administration. Equally important, it has strengthened the ability of the Tibetan people to carry on their struggle until justice is done and freedom restored.

As we commemorate this important anniversary, our thoughts remain with our brothers and sisters in Tibet aspiring for freedom and the return of His Holiness the Dalai Lama to his homeland. Under the continued occupation and oppressive polices of the Chinese government, 51 Tibetans have set themselves on fire. Sadly, 42 have died. The Kashag and the Tibetan Parliament will be convening the Second Special General Meeting of Tibetans in Dharamsala from September 25–28. Its primary agenda will be to discuss ways and means to address the urgent and critical situation in Tibet.

To understand the self-immolations, it is crucial to know that no space exists in Tibet for freedom of speech and other conventional forms of protest. A participant in a simple demonstration could face arrest, torture and even death. These conditions help explain the terribly high number of self-immolations in Tibet. It is a tragic irony that His Holiness the Dalai Lama is accessible to millions of people around the world, but not to his own people calling out for him in Tibet.

The Central Tibetan Administration has made consistent and repeated appeals to refrain from the drastic acts of self-immolation. Still Tibetans continue to commit this form of protest – and we in the Tibetan Administration recognize our sacred duty to make the protesters’ cries heard around the globe to all who believe in justice. Tibetans around the world offer our prayers to those Tibetans who have succumbed to self-immolation and express solidarity with the arrested, tortured and imprisoned, including all the Tibetans in Tibet who live under repressive rule.

The Kashag welcomes statements of concern from the international community. Parliamentarians from around the world, including the U.S., South Africa, Great Britain, Japan, Australia and various countries of Europe, have expressed support.  We welcome the recent letter by two U.S. Congressmen urging the current U.S. Administration to undertake stronger, more coordinated and visible international diplomatic efforts to address the crisis in Tibet. Specifically, they encouraged the U.S. to host an international conference on the issue of Tibet, and establish a Contact Group among U.S. partner nations at the United Nations as an effective means of expressing support to Tibet.

We commend the European Union’s first-time appointment of a EU Special Representative for Human Rights. This is a significant step to advance human rights and address the human rights violations in Tibet.

The Kashag also welcomes the work of Chinese writers and analysts within China and outside, expressing their support for the Middle-Way Policy. Since the 2008 protests in Tibet, they have published thousands of articles that urge the Chinese Communist leadership to resolve the Tibetan issue through dialogue. Many Chinese writers and intellectuals point to the Chinese government and its policies as the cause of the self-immolations and the growing resentment of the Tibetan people. As world famous artist Ai Weiwei recently said, “Tibetan people are burning themselves to death. Already over 40 of them in the past two years, and nobody’s talking about it. I would feel ashamed to go to Lhasa (Capital city of Tibet).”

While we appreciate the statement of concerns and other steps being taken by various governments and the international community, we believe that concrete action is needed to help stop the tragedy in Tibet.

Today, I would like to take this occasion to reiterate the Kashag’s firm commitment to the Middle-Way Policy and to dialogue to peacefully resolve the issue of Tibet. For Dharamsala and Beijing, this is a win-win proposition. Here we also welcome the U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s recent call on the Chinese government to resume serious dialogue with the Tibetan leadership. To continue the dialogue process, the Tibetan Task Force on Negotiations will meet in December 2012 after the new Chinese leadership has assumed office.

The Tibetan spirit and their quest for freedom cannot be crushed by China’s military might. In a recent interview, His Holiness the Dalai Lama said “using force for 60 years completely failed” and its revolutionary leader Mao Zedong’s idea that power came from the barrel of a gun was “outdated”. If China seeks to become a global power, then the rights of the Tibetans must be respected. China must also respect the aspiration of its own people and release all political prisoners, including Nobel Peace Prize winner and author of Charter 08, Mr. Liu Xiaobo.

Today, on this 52nd anniversary of Tibetan Democracy, the Kashag would also like to express its gratitude to the government and people of India for many years of generosity and hospitality.

We extend our deep appreciation to friends around the world for their support and active participation in highlighting and advancing the cause of Tibet. In November, International Tibet Support Groups will be organising a special meeting to discuss the critical situation in Tibet and further enhance the international support for the Tibetan cause.

Finally, to my fellow Tibetans, this is the time for unity and solidarity as expressed through the prayers, songs and last wishes of the self-immolators. We must remain vigilant to counter the hard line Chinese leaders’ efforts to undermine the Tibetan cause. We have laid a solid foundation that will only grow stronger if we follow the three guiding principles of unity, innovation and self-reliance. Tibetans are fortunate to be the beneficiary of His Holiness the Dalai Lama’s vision of a democratic Tibetan polity. His unceasing efforts to bring us to this moment have helped to unleash Tibetans’ dynamic energy and empowered them to determine their own future.

We pray for the long and healthy life of His Holiness the Dalai Lama. May the aspirations of all Tibetans within and outside Tibet, be fulfilled.

Central Tibetan Administration

Tokyo city officials survey disputed islands

ABOARD THE KOYO MARU (AP) — Tokyo city officials planning to buy tiny islands at the center of a longtime territorial dispute with China surveyed the area Sunday on a visit meant to send a message of ownership.

Associated Press/Kyodo News - Tokyo city officials and experts survey Uotsuri Island, one of the islands of Senkaku in Japanese and Diaoyu in Chinese, in the East China Sea early Sunday, Sept. 2, 2012. Tokyo 

The boat, carrying 25 experts and officials as well as journalists from news organizations including The Associated Press, circled the five uninhabited islands in the East China Sea which are controlled by Japan but also claimed by China and Taiwan.

China responded quickly to the survey, saying any unilateral action by Japan on the islands is "illegal" and "invalid."

Tokyo city officials say the survey is crucial and includes measuring the water depth to build a dock at the islands, known as Senkaku in Japan and Diaoyu in China. Japan's central government did not grant permission to land on the islands.

Tokyo Gov. Shintaro Ishihara, a strong nationalist, has raised 1.45 billion yen ($19 million) in private donations over the last several months to buy the islands from the Japanese family that owns them. Supporters think having the government own the islands will strengthen Japan's control over them and send a tougher message to China.

"It is an undeniable fact that the islands are Japanese territory, so our task is to see how we can best maintain that," Yoshihiko Yamada, a special adviser to the city's team, said aboard the boat.

The team was scheduled to study the islands for about 10 hours Sunday before heading back to Okinawa in southwestern Japan.

The islands, a symbol of patriotic pride for some people in China and Japan, are near key sea lanes and are surrounded by rich fishing grounds and untapped natural resources.

China's Foreign Ministry said it had already made "solemn representations" to Japan about the visit.

"The Chinese side reiterates that any unilateral action by the Japanese side on the Diaoyu islands is illegal, invalid, and will not change the reality that the Diaoyu islands and its affiliated islands belong to Chinese territory," it said in a statement.

Despite the squabbling over the islands, economic ties between China and Japan are growing. Major Japanese manufacturers such as Nissan Motor Co. and Sony Corp. are eager to get a slice of the Chinese market, while ailing companies like Sharp Corp., which makes flat panels for TVs, are seeking Chinese investment.

Japan therefore has much to gain by avoiding tensions with China. But Ishihara remains extremely popular, having been re-elected as Tokyo governor three times following a stint in parliament.

Seiichiro Sakamaki, the leader of the Tokyo survey team, stressed that the city is going to buy the islands.

"The basic point is that those who are about to buy property need to look at it," he said.

Hundreds of Chinese have staged anti-Japan demonstrations in several cities over the island dispute. Anti-Japanese sentiment runs deep in China because of bitter memories of atrocities committed by Japanese soldiers during World War II.

This past week in Beijing, a man ripped the Japanese flag off a car carrying Japan's ambassador to China. Last month, Japan detained and later released 14 Hong Kong activists who landed on the islands. Japanese activists have made similar trips.

A.P.

Isle Spats Backdrop for Clinton's Asia Trip

JAKARTA—Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is scheduled to tour parts of Asia over the coming week in what could be one of the Obama administration's last chances to address escalating territorial disputes across the region ahead of November elections.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is greeted on arrival at Rarotonga International Airport on the Cook Islands where she started her trip through the Asia-Pacific region.

Mrs. Clinton is scheduled to meet with leaders of Indonesia, East Timor, Brunei, China and Russia amid growing tensions over competing claims on the islands, shoals and open waters in Asia.

Her visit, say State Department officials, is to further underline the U.S. commitment to stability in the Asia-Pacific as the U.S. untangles itself from commitments in Iraq and Afghanistan.

"She is demonstrating that the U.S. is engaging in the region in a very practical way, by showing up [for multilateral meetings], contributing, listening and adopting soft initiatives," like aid programs across Asia, said Carlyle Thayer, an Asian security expert at the Australian Defence Force Academy in Canberra.

For a year, the administration has been cranking up U.S. influence in the region, often to China's chagrin. President Obama last year announced U.S. Marines would begin regularly working out of a base in Australia, and Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said earlier this year that the U.S. Navy would shift the majority of its ships to Asia. The administration also is seeking bases to build missile defenses in Asia, primarily as a bulwark against North Korea.

Mr. Panetta is expected to return to the region again in the near future, to reassert U.S. goals and priorities. However, the effort has not always delivered results sought by the administration.

Beijing accuses the U.S. of increased meddling in the region. Chinese officials and state media object to what they describe as attempts by the U.S. to inflame territorial disputes between China and its neighbors as a means to contain China's regional influence. The U.S., on the other hand, has criticized recent Chinese moves as likely to further escalate tension in the South China Sea.

Sensitivities over China's disagreements with Japan over disputed island claims are also still raw. Anti-Japanese protests erupted in some Chinese cities in recent weeks. State media in recent days have questioned Mrs. Clinton's visit to the region.

"It is true that one objective of Clinton's tour is to contain China's increasing influence, but the core of U.S. strategy is to defend its dominance and hegemony in the Asia-Pacific region," read a Wednesday commentary by the state-run Xinhua news agency.

When Secretary Clinton was in the region last in July, tempers flared and talks broke down during a major Association of Southeast Asian Nations meeting in Cambodia. The 10 members of the economic bloc failed to agree on how to respond to China's claims on parts of the South China Sea that are also claimed by several Asean members.

With the Philippines demanding a strongly worded declaration of the group's concerns, and Cambodia resisting any wording that would embarrass China, Asean members couldn't agree on language for a joint statement at the end of the meeting. It was the first time in the association's 45-year history that it was unable to issue a joint communiqué.

The failed talks in Phnom Penh were also a setback for the U.S., analysts said, because it has been trying to build up Asean as a unified front against expanding Chinese influence in the region.

Territorial disputes in other parts of Asia have also been flaring up. Last month Japan raised the prospect of taking a dispute with South Korea over possession of a group of islets to an international court after South Korean President Lee Myung-bak visited them. The islets known as Dokdo in South Korea, Takeshima in Japan and Liancourt Rocks in the U.S. and elsewhere are part of a long-simmering territorial dispute. Japan recalled its ambassador to South Korea after Mr. Lee's visit.

Japan has disputes with other neighbors as well. It controls a set of islands known as Senkaku, also claimed by China and Taiwan; they are known as Diaoyu in Chinese. Japan also claims Russian-controlled islands known in Russia as the southern Kurils; Japan calls them the Northern Territories.

"I think one of the messages that we seek to carry on this trip is that it is absolutely essential that cooler heads prevail in every capital, and that great care be taken on these issues, and that, in fact, all of the—these complex territorial matters have existed for decades," said a senior State Department official in Washington this week. "They have been managed generally effectively for decades, and during this period we've seen some of the most manifest Asian prosperity."

Mrs. Clinton arrived Thursday in the Cook Islands, where she is attending an annual gathering of officials from Australia, New Zealand and the Pacific as part of her six-nation tour.

Her first stop next week will be in Indonesia where she is scheduled to meet with President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono as well as Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa. Bolstered by its strong economic growth and stable democracy, Indonesia has increasingly played a leading role in Southeast Asia and Asean. This is a trend that the U.S. wants to encourage, analysts say. After the troubled talks in Cambodia, Mr. Natalegawa took it upon himself to visit all of the region's leaders to try to encourage cooperation.

On Tuesday and Wednesday, Mrs. Clinton will be in China. Visible progress on strategic issues between the two countries is unlikely during her closely watched visit there, analysts say, given both the U.S. election and China's once-a-decade leadership change. China's transition, set to begin this fall, makes officials unlikely to make major decisions given political sensitivities.

Diplomats are already saying it will be difficult to win Chinese leaders' cooperation on South China Sea issues at the next Asean summit in Phnom Penh in November.

While a major breakthrough isn't expected, the U.S. may seek Chinese cooperation to at least ensure the South China Sea dispute is a topic of discussion. Such a move would give China room to continue to press its claim of sovereignty over the region but would likely be viewed as a victory for regional claimants who have pushed to negotiate territorial disputes in multilateral forums. China has said negotiations should be between Beijing and individual countries.

U.S. officials and Chinese political analysts say both sides are focused simply on maintaining the relationship's status quo during a period of potential political volatility in both countries.

Mrs. Clinton will arrive in Beijing as strategic ties between the U.S. and China have been strained.

On Aug. 3, the State Department released a statement criticizing Beijing's decision to elevate the administrative status of a place called Sansha City, which China says will administer the disputed territories it claims in the South China Sea, as well as its plan to establish a new military garrison there.

China's Foreign Ministry responded with what analysts and diplomats described as an unusually harsh response. The statement said people must "question the true intention of the U.S. side" and said Washington's actions weren't conducive to regional stability.

Mrs. Clinton's visit to the Cook Islands is also being closely watched in China. China has backed development projects throughout the South Pacific, and in recent years has been involved in building a police headquarters and a courthouse in the Cook Islands, according to analysts and local media.

"I think the secretary intends very clearly to underscore our continuing interest in maintaining a strong, positive relationship" between the U.S. and China, said the senior State Department official. "We recognize how critically important that is, and one of the challenges before us is to demonstrate how we deal with areas in which we have differing perceptions and where we face challenging issues on the ground, or in this case in the water."

After China, Secretary Clinton is scheduled to visit East Timor and then Brunei and her final stop will be Vladivostok for a summit of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation countries.

WSJ

China’s South Pacific Diplomacy

U.S. Secretary of State Hilary Clinton’s decision to attend the Pacific Islands Forum meeting in the Cook Islands this week signals the growing strategic importance of the South Pacific. Clinton’s attendance may also be a response to China’s increasing presence in the region. The consequences of China’s advance in Australia’s immediate neighborhood are most significant for Canberra, which is facing a situation where it may, for the first time in more than 70 years, find itself in a position where a nation in its own backyard has interests not necessarily aligned with its own.

China has been active in the South Pacific for four decades, mostly driven by its competition with Taiwan for diplomatic recognition. Although a truce (of sorts) has held for the last few years, China and Taiwan have engaged in “checkbook diplomacy” to curry favor with South Pacific states. While this competition remains important, China now appears to have strategic interests in demonstrating its ability to project global power via its increasing influence in the region. And, regardless of their small size, each independent South Pacific state has a vote in international organizations, which China can seek to persuade them to use in pursuit of its interests.

China’s efforts to penetrate the South Pacific were given a boost after Australia and New Zealand attempted to isolate the Fijian regime following the 2006 coup there. The Fijian regime responded by explicitly adopting a “look north” policy that included forging closer ties with China, which other regional states have since followed. After Australia and New Zealand supported Fiji’s suspension from the Pacific Islands Forum, the Fijian regime focused its attention on the Melanesian Spearhead Group, from which Australia and New Zealand are excluded. China seized this opportunity to gain influence, sponsoring the creation of the Group’s Secretariat, and building its headquarters in Vanuatu.

China’s most significant strategic interest in the South Pacific is military access, the most important aspect of which is signals intelligence monitoring. For example, China built a satellite tracking station in Kiribati in 1997, although it was subsequently dismantled after Kiribati switched diplomatic recognition to Taiwan. The Chinese fishing fleet operating out of Fiji is also said to provide cover for signals intelligence monitoring, particularly of U.S. bases in Micronesia. China is also seeking naval access to the region’s ports and exclusive economic zones, engages in military assistance programs, and is negotiating access to facilities for maintenance and resupply purposes.

Australian’s Parliamentary Secretary for Pacific Island Affairs, Richard Marles, has said that, “China’s increased presence in the Pacific is fundamentally welcomed by Australia.” However, China’s growing military presence may pose several risks to Australia. As China becomes a more assertive international actor it could respond militarily if members of the Chinese diaspora are threatened, as they were during the riots in Solomon Islands and Tonga in 2006 (PDF). Questions then arise about what would happen if Australia also responded to such an eventuality: would the Chinese and Australians cooperate? Or could the situation lead to a stand-off?

The most serious risk is that Australia’s near neighbors could come to owe allegiance to a power with interests that do not necessarily align with those of Australia. Indeed, the 2009 Defense White Paper noted that Australia has a strategic interest in ensuring that Indonesia and South Pacific states “are not a source of threat to Australia, and that no major military power that could challenge our control of the air and sea approaches to Australia, has access to bases in our neighborhood from which to project force against us.” Given the extensive nature of Chinese involvement, it is not beyond the realm of possibility to imagine such a scenario. The vulnerability of Australia to a major power establishing a foothold in the region was graphically illustrated during World War II, when the Japanese managed to penetrate as far as Papua New Guinea.

Australia (often in cooperation with New Zealand and the United States) has belatedly responded to China’s increased presence in the South Pacific. Australia has increased its diplomacy in the region, on top of its already extensive aid, military, policing, and governance assistance. Most positively, Australia announced in July that it is restoring full diplomatic relations with Fiji, and easing sanctions it imposed on the military regime. Given the strategic issues at stake, it is vital that Australia continues to devote its energies to this issue in similarly positive ways.

Joanne Wallis is a lecturer in the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre at the Australian National University, where she also convenes the Bachelor of Asia-Pacific Security program. This piece first appeared on The Strategist: The Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s Blog.